The Future of the Polyethylene Industry to 2015
Asia Pacific region accounted for 44% of the global polyethylene demand in 2008 and is also the fastest growing region in the world. The growth in the region was due to strong demand from China and India, which have been growing above the world average. Asia Pacific region accounted for over 43% of the global capacity for polyethylene in 2008, and accounts for nearly 50% of the planned capacity additions until 2015.
Asia Pacific region will have the maximum capacity additions of more than 12 million tons during 2008-2015. In Asia Pacific region, China and India will account for more than 8 million tons of future capacity additions.
HDPE dominates the Asia Pacific polyethylene capacity with 48% of the installed capacity and 43% of the planned capacity additions, followed by LLDPE with 28% of the installed capacity and 51% of the planned capacity additions. In 2015, HDPE will account for 47%, LDPE 19% and LLDPE will account for 34% of the Asia Pacific installed capacity of 42 million tons.
The largest market for polyethylene in South and Central America is Brazil, which accounted for 52% of the demand and 69% of the region’s capacity in 2008. Other major producers of polyethylene in South and Central America include Mexico, Venezuela and Argentina. Other countries have limited demand growth as there is a lack of significant industrial base, which is a major restraint for increased applications of polyethylene.
Venezuela has limited polyethylene demand in the absence of a diversified industrial base, but the abundance of crude oil and natural gas makes it a favorable destination for setting up polyethylene capacity. More than 3.5 million tons of additional capacity is expected to come on-stream in Venezuela by 2015.
HDPE accounted for 43% of the South and Central America polyethylene capacity in 2008 and will see more than 3.2 million tons of capacity additions until 2015. LDPE grade accounted for 24% of the South and Central America polyethylene capacity and a million tons of additional capacity will be added in the region. LLDPE grade accounted for 33% of the South and Central American capacity and will see nearly three million tons of capacity additions until 2015. In 2015, HDPE will account for 44%, LDPE 20% and LLDPE will account for 36% of the South and Central American installed capacity of 14.6 million tons.
The United States will see half a million ton of capacity reduction as a result of demand stagnation and diminishing export markets. However, Canada is expected to drive the North American demand for polyethylene. Also, the natural gas pricing advantage enjoyed by producers in Canada helps the Canadian polyethylene producers vis-à-vis the US producers. An additional 1.5 million tons of polyethylene capacity is coming up in Canada until 2015.
HDPE accounted for 45% of the North American polyethylene capacity in 2008 and will 0.3 million tons of capacity additions until 2015. LDPE grade accounted for 17% of the North American polyethylene capacity and 0.2 million tons of additional capacity will be added in the region. LLDPE grade accounted for 18% of the North American capacity and will see 0.2 million tons of capacity additions until 2015. In 2015, HDPE will account for 44%, LDPE 18% and LLDPE will account for 38% of the North American installed capacity of 20.8 million tons.
Global Markets Direct, the leading business intelligence provider, has released its latest research “The Future of the Polyethylene Industry to 2015: Investment Opportunities, Analysis and Forecasts of All Active and Planned Polyethylene Plants”. The study, which is an offering from the company’s Chemicals Research Group, provides an in-depth analysis of the global polyethylene market with historic and forecast capacity of all active and planned polyethylene plants. Detailed analysis and forecast of the polyethylene capacity by Low Density Polyethylene (LDPE), High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) and Linear Low Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) is also included in this report. This research includes analysis of active and planned capacity by key feedstock and production process for LDPE, HDPE and LLDPE in all the regions of the world.